In our sample, the probability of a moderate impact can be regarded as an outlier: chemical innovation has eliminated world hunger. Although this situation is unlikely to happen, and the impact on the industry as a whole is also very low, this future state may interest a few participants, such as chemical suppliers in the agricultural sector. Finally, a surprising result emerged in our Delphi survey: the prediction that chemical production will completely shift to non-European countries. The opinions put forward by experts indicate that by 2030, the consumer industry in Europe will maintain strong growth. Therefore, the supply market for chemical products, including production, is likely to remain in the same region. In addition, long-term investment, highly skilled labor, research and development capabilities and infrastructure conditions will support the European chemical industry. Accenture's research also supports this statement.
In essence, these results justify the controversial evaluation of the forecast. Only 4 predictions: 1 (uncertainty), 3 (new value chain), 9 (synthetic material use) and 15 (value driver sustainability) reached consensus in the Delphi group. The desirability of these predictions also seems interesting. In the Delphi survey, the prediction of eliminating world hunger through chemical innovation 12 was the highest at 4.4, followed by the prediction of sustainability of value drivers 15 (4.3). At the other end of the scale are plans 11 (qualified personnel) and 7 (production shifts), with expected values of 1.7 and 1.9.
We found that experts still feel quite uncertain due to the occurrence of many probability values of about 50%. In addition, most predictions did not reach a consensus, which also shows the ambivalence of the expert team. In order to further resolve this uncertainty, more extreme scenarios have been developed using scenario axis technology. Based on the data from the Delphi survey, we chose projection 6 (oil dependence) and projection 15 (value-driven sustainability) as input. Projection 6 is the only one that does not converge in the Delphi process, indicating that the discussion and evaluation of this topic is very diverse. Prediction 15 reached a consensus (IQR = 17.5), and the expected probability was the second highest at 83%, which shows that the experts have a high degree of certainty.
We used two driving forces to create four scene quadrants by combining the poles of the axis. The results of qualitative data analysis are used to make reasonable situational writing. Figure 3 shows the scene axis and the scene.
According to the evaluation of Delphi experts, the European chemical industry may face the following four situations in the future:
By 2030, the chemical industry is still highly dependent on petroleum and naphtha as the basic raw materials for most products. Although the European chemical industry has invested in research on the use of alternative raw materials and production technologies, initiatives to promote alternative energy have not been as expected. Chemical production knowledge is not limited to mature markets, but spreads to the world. European companies cannot compete with state-owned companies in the Middle East and Asia, nor can they compete with American oil companies that have access to cheap raw materials. As more oil reserves are discovered, crude oil consumption can be met. In addition, large multinational petrochemical companies are also using cheaper exploration technologies. The trend of sustainable development gradually disappeared after a brief hype from 2010 to 2015, because energy is still cheap. Therefore, the world still relies heavily on fossil energy supplies, even though it is limited, and ignores sustainability issues. The mantra is that oil is still the best choice.
Another situation in 2030 is that the chemical industry still relies heavily on petroleum-based raw materials(click here chemical), while at the same time making sustainable development a key value driver for the industry. Together with NGOs and European government agencies, a nationwide campaign has been launched to convince the public that only alternative fuels can be used for private and public transportation and heating. As a result, Europe has drastically reduced its oil use.
